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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."