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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.